Welcome to Excellence in Software Sign in | Join | Help

Is StockTwits Getting too Big?

NO

 

-SCMcDonnell

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

From This Site to the Front Page of the New York Times

It seems that the OSTK story decided to grow after I wrote last night's post.  I say this because the story made the front page of today's New York Times as well as the front page of the business section.  Links are below:

U.S. Subpoenas 2 Dow Writers, Then Backs Off
Overstock's Campaign of Menace

I just hope that I don't become Crazy Pat's next target. 

One other thing to note is that The Times is trying to make the subpoena of Herb Greenberg look similiar to the subpoenas of its reporters during the investigation phase of the outing of non-covert CIA agent Valerie Plame Wilson.

Shaun McDonnell


 

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

It's Just Pat.

The CEO of OverStock.com - Patrick Bryne - is one of two things - crazy or criminal.  And one thing is for sure, he keeps getting weirder and weirder.  As I will detail out below, he has accused a "Sith Lord" of bringing down the stock of his company through an illegal trading process called Naked Short Selling (no, this is not what you'd hoped it would be).

In order to really understand what Naked Short Selling is, let's take a quick look at the process of short selling a stock:

Typically, investors buy stock in hopes that its share price will increase and then sell the stock for a profit.  However, a practice called short selling has long been in-play and allows for investors to make a profit if the share price of the stock goes down.  Now, one thing to remember is that just as an investor who buys a stock can lose money when it goes down, an investor who sells short a stock can lose money if the price of the stock goes up.  Theoretically, an investor's loss is limitless if they are short a stock and its price continues to rise.  The functional process behind short selling a stock is as follows:

  • You, being a savvy investor, think that the computer manufacturer DELL's stock price is going to drop because of a potential mechanical flaw in their latest computer.  You want to make money off of your hypothesis.
  • You call your broker and tell him that you'd like to sell short 100 shares of DELL at the price of $21.00.
  • Your broker then lends you 100 shares of DELL at $21.00 and then sells those 100 shares on your behalf to another buyer within the market.
  • You wait 2 months as the price of DELL's shares drops to $18.00 per share.
  • At that point, you buy back the 100 shares of DELL for $18.00 per share and return the shares to your broker.
  • You keep the $3.00 per share difference and make a $300 profit.
  • You do the money dance.

Ok, yes, a tad confusing, but basically it makes sense and it is nothing new to Wall Street.  Now, naked short selling is the same process accept it totally cuts out the whole "borrowing shares from your broker" process.  Therefore, you end up selling something that you never owned.  Now, that doesn't make sense.  But, even regulators at the SEC have stated that the practice of naked short selling rarely has an effect on the price of a stock.

Crazy Patrick Byrne would disagree (as would many other CEOs who have failed to deliver results would as well).

First, let's take a look and diagnose the beginning of Crazy Pat's decline:

In the 3rd fiscal quarter of 2004, Crazy Pat had the following to say in their earnings press release:

The elephant in the room during our conference calls and other meetings is the fact that out there there are a bunch of short-sellers and their sycophants who bad-mouth every thing I do or say. Eventually the nasty things they write make their way to my desk. It is OK with me. I practice Buddhist non-attachment on such matters. I "walk past the barking dog." They could be right: I don't know how things are going to work out, and never meant to imply otherwise. It's business. Some of their criticism even seems honest: some have done their homework, concluded I was tangled up in my underwear, and for much of our history have recommended selling us. More power to them. I get no satisfaction out of all the money I've cost the clients who trusted these diligent analysts. I promise.

That almost says it all right there.  Again, this is within a professional earnings PRESS RELEASE that Crazy Pat started acting, well, CRAZY.  To me, the above statement is a green flag to the short Overstock.com (OSTK) because obviously Crazy Pat is concerned about those who would think his stock is going down.  The fact that he said, "I get no satisfaction out of all the money I've cost the clients who trusted these diligent analysts" means that he pretty much just through the gauntlet down for every stock analyst to take apart their earnings and look for any signs of negativity.  And negativity they found and money the shorts made.

Ok, so during the companies 3rd Quarter Earnings Conference Call (which has mysteriously been removed from their website) Crazy Pat got even more, well, CRAZY and stated that someone from CamelBack Research (now Gradient Analytics) should call in and pretty much explain why they had given OSTK an "F" rating.  Well, Donn Vickrey tried to call in but did not have his call accepted.  So, after the conference call, Vickrey sent Crazy Pat an email saying that he tried to get onto the call to clarify his position.  Well, here is how Crazy Pat responded to Donn (Hat Tip:  Herb Greenberg at MarketWatch.com):

Donn, you make a living toadying to bully hedge funds. In this role, you insulted Mr. Macklin, a friend, a lifelong mentor and a decent and wonderful man. You deserve to be whipped, f*cked and driven from the land. Little punctilious submissive rejoinders such as your letter cannot change this or recalibrate our relationship on other terms. You drew first blood: own it.

And that started Round One.

Throughout the year, Crazy Pat had various things to say about analysts who downgraded his company.  At one point he called a reporter a liar on a conference call.  Then, about a year ago, Crazy Pat had another crazy Novastar investor talk on his conference call for 10 minutes about naked shorting.  After the "anonymous investor" was finished, Crazy Pat said, "I don't have a dog in that fight.  I don't pay it a whole lot of mind."  Now, keep that comment in mind as we continue down crazy street.

April, 2005:  Crazy Pat's company reports horrible numbers.  During the conference call he says, "I am not sure if the slowdown is because of tax day or The Pope."  This only get weirder, folks.

Now comes the really interesting part.  In August of 2005, Crazy Pat aligned with Mary Helbum (someone who fights illegal naked short selling) filed a lawsuit against Gradient Analytics claiming that it conspired "to denigrate" OSTK for "personal profit."  Now come the days of the CRAZY.  Crazy Pat also started giving money to Mrs Helbum to support her lawsuits against naked short sellers.  So much for his previous comments.  THEN, on a later conference call Crazy Pat said this:

CEOs who spend time worrying about shorts or obsessing about shorts are fools and most CEOs who tangle with shorts are crooks. Shorting plays a healthy role in a normal market.

Who is this guy trying to kid.  And probably the better question is what in the world is he trying to hide?  What is he trying to prove?  The lawsuit claims that Gradient Analytics conspired with Rocker Partners (a hedge fund) to drive down the price of OSTK so that Rocker Partners could profit off of their short positions.  Only problem is that OSTKs stock price started failing way before Rocker Partners ever had a position in the stock and even before Gradient Analytics ever made a comment about the stock.  After the stupid lawsuit was filed, many more financial analysts and professionals came out with downgrades on the stock because it was so clear that Crazy Pat was using OH-POOR-ME tactics to explain the decline of his company and shares.

Let's add an episode of Star Wars to the story, shall we?  This is no joke.  On August 12, 2005, Crazy Pat appears on CNBC to discuss his lawsuit against the aforementioned companies.  At the end of the rant, Crazy Pat claimed he had evidence of a conspiracy by a SITH LORD to bring down the price of his stock.  The audio is here.  It is because of this that I have changed my official trading name to SithLord over at the Shark Tank I frequently visit for trading advice, etc.  I love illustrating absurdity by being absurd.  The smokescreen continued as Crazy Pat decided to hand out affidavits to every single reporter/analyst that had ever said anything bad about his company.  I kid you not.  Most of the affidavits even had the basics screwed up like who worked for who and who did what.  They seemed to indicate that Herb Greenberg (an amazing perma-skeptic financial journalist) was out to get him as well as Jim Cramer and many other well known analysts and market commentators.  Herb sums up alot of the falsehoods here.  Crazy Pat even found a former emloyee of Gradient Anaytics who was willing to testify that the company was writing research reports to help out Rocker Partners.  He sees this as the smoking gun.  But if I had an android-clone for everytime a disgruntled employee took advantage of a lawsuit against their former employer I could create my own episode of Attack of the Clones.  Crazy Pat is, well, CRAZY ...and STUPID.

Now, OSTK has subpoenaed Herb Greenberg for all of his research related to his articles at Dow Jones' MarketWatch.  In my opinion, Crazy Pat is becoming Dangerous Pat by attempting to get financial journalists to reveal their sources.  You'd think he was trying to find a nuclear bomb.  Let the journalists do their job so that they can protect us from people like Crazy Pat who want to pull the wool over our eyes as their company fails miserably.  OSTKs latest quarter was a disaster and Crazy Pat has "stepped down" from the board to pursue his lawsuits.  Of all of the shares of OSTK available, 80% of those shares are being held short.  80%.  If that doesn't say what type of company OSTK is, I don't know what will.  Other than maybe that when all of the short-sellers decided to take profits it moved the stock UP about 30% in a few short hours.  Now that is, well, CRAZY.

On a side note, I sent Herb Greenberg an email stating that Crazy Pat is making him look good by actually trying to subpoena his research and making himself look like a Wookiee.  Herb replied with the following: 

Doesn’t get wilder than this, Shaun. Thanks! herb

His reply sums up this whole post.

SithLord out!

 

 


 

posted by Shaun | 1 Comments

Inaccurate Inflation Indicators

Most economists would define inflation as a "monetary phenomenon."  Yet, the government still makes haphazard attempts at measuring inflation through indicators such as The Consumer Price Index, Core Inflation, etc.  The Federal Reserve has more than once stated how it believes how "core inflation is contained."  Yet, I would suggest that all of us take a look at our wallets to truly make a determination of inflation.  In my opinion, inflation is soaring and here is why:

Rent:  $1600 (up $100)
Heating, Water: $300.00 (up $120.00)
1 Month of Groceries:  $550.00 (up $150.00)
1 Month Health Insurance  $521.00 (up $80.00)
1 Month Car Insurance - unchanged

And the fed wonders why Consumer Spending has dropped since the last report.  Inflation is out there, especially in Florida, and because the government indicators are so poor, it will be too late for anyone notice the problem when it arises.  Consumer Spending will tell the whole story.

Shaun McDonnell

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

YEN Trend Reversal

I think alot of people think that the fed is done raising rates.  However, the evidence to support such a theory is few and far between.  This is why I believe we are seeing some significan strengthening in the dollar across the board on all major pairs.  Even crosses are showing signs of this.  I am long the USD/JPY because I think it will strengthen.


posted by Shaun | 1 Comments

Another Potential Exellent Trade

There is news out right now that some riots our occuring in Australia.  Short the AUD/USD until you hit the red resistance line. Then take some off the table and keep your eyes on the news.  The worse it gets, the more money you can make.

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

Kiwi Short Didn't Work

The stronger dollar and potential for a rate hike helped the Kiwi pass through resistance.  I stopped out.

Shaun

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

Short the Kiwi (NZD).

Ok, this looks like it could be a pretty good trade.  The New Zealand Dollar has been meeting resistance right at the 200 day moving average since August, 2005.  The chart shows that it is right at the 200dma again and also a downtrend line.  I would short lots of 10 here and if it moves up a little, short another 10 lots.  I would then ride it all the way down to about the .6800 level before taking profits.  However, because the National Reserve Bank of New Zealand has threatened to raise interest rates, this trade could get smashed.  So, set a stop at .7082 and maybe even take small profits on the way down so that if something bad happens, you won't lose everything at your stop.  All in all, if you short a total of 30 lots, that might cost you $200 USD in the Mini Forex, but if the trade goes right, you could make about $1300.

Good luck!

Shaun

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

Today's Forex Summary

Today's EURO:

If you take a look at the action for the EURO, you can see that there are a few trading possibilities here.  Look at the second downtrend line (blue).  The EURO seems to have bounced off that line and stuck to the downtrend channel pretty relentlessly.  Today's bar is getting closer and closer to reaching the downtrend line, and we can most likely guess that it will bounce off the line as well.  I plan to stay LONG the EURO until it reaches that line and then I will immediately go SHORT for the downward bounce. 

Now, the risk to this trade is that the EURO is very weak right now because of the riots in France.  It has come back up right now because the riots have settled down.  But, if the riots begin again, watch for another drop and a the beginning of a new downtrend line.  Keep your stops tight, and put your limits .0030 below the downtrend line.

Today's Japanese Yen:

The Yen is on fire as you can tell from this uptrend line.  Also note the squiggly blue line which is the 9 day moving average.  The Yen keeps bouncing up off of the 9 day moving average.  I am currently LONG the yen and occasionally I try to trade the bounced; but, be careful because those swing trades can really nail you if you don't have enough margin.

Until later,

Shaun McDonnell

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

Charting Tools

I have had a few people recently email me asking me what charting tools I use.  Well, honestly, I believe that eSignal is probably the best tool out there; however, there is a monthly charge and depending upon what exchanges you want to pull from, it could get expensive.

I use the following services with my eSignal account:

  • Quotrek (Streaming Charts and Quotes on my BlackBerry)
  • AMEX, NYSE, and NASDAQ quotes all come with the base service
  • CBOT Futures
  • NYMEX Futures (Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, etc)
  • The Fly on the Wall Streaming News
  • DJ Streaming News
  • Reuters Streaming News
  • Forex (Currency Charts and Quotes)
  • Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures and Options
  • New York Board of Trade Futures and Options

All in all, that costs me about $300/mo but it pays for itself once you learn how to use it.  I recommend you go check the service out and see the different pricing mechanisms at http://www.esignal.com.

One of the nice things about eSignal is its alerting capabilities.  You can set alert threshold for every different type of quote and perform actions based upon their alert.  Without the alert system, it would be hard for me to get in at good prices when trading currencies.

Peace,

Shaun McDonnell

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

Weekly Results

Ok, so maybe I got a little lucky this week.  Here are the results and the actions I have taken at the end of the week:

CNTF:

I stated that I liked the stock when it closed at 11.82 because of the nice breakout on volume.  I sold all but 15 of the 500 shares by the close yesterday.  Therefore, the total profit was 13.5% which is an unusual profit.  Anytime I make over 10% in one session on one stock I usually sell it.

WBKC:

I said to buy this stock at $14.95 and it is currently sitting at $14.99.  One thing I did not take into account is how much of a thinster this stock is (low low volume) so I took a little bit off the table as to not be in so much risk.  Low volume stocks can really burn you if you are not careful.

NSHA:

I recommended this one at $7.80 and it currently sits at $8.00.  I plan to hold this stock because it still is sitting at a nice base.

Shaun

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments

New Long Positions

Ok, I have been doing some research and have added 3 long positions to my watch list.  Most of these stocks are new breakouts on earnings away from a downtrend.  This technical analysis works because I can use market scanners to look for patterns of change on heavy volume.

China Techfaith Wireless Communication Technology Ltd. (CNTF)



CNTF reported excellent 3Q results and that is why this chart is showing the technical breakout after a long downtrend from late August.  I'd hold onto it until it breaks the uptrend.  Remember, it is a good rule of thumb to keep all single stock losses to 6% when trading.

Westbank Corp. (WBKC)

WBKC is something to watch because volume significantly increased today and if it were to break through the resistance shown at 14.95 it may start to form a new base and then breakout.  WBKC also reported excellent earnings recently.

Nashua Corp. (NSHA)

After breaking a lengthy downtrend, NSHA performed a technical breakout and then a nice cup and handle pattern with a new developing base.  I would look for this stock to breakout again because of the increase in volume.  I plan to go long this position tomorrow of about 500 shares.

 

posted by Shaun | 1 Comments

The Yield Curve...

...is only good for hanging your pictures straight right now.

 

posted by Shaun | 0 Comments