000 ABNT20 KNHC 301501 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS AREA SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH